Connor Marriott, Founder and CEO of Instinct Education shares his mathematical formula for determining probabilities of different sales objections, and how to overcome them.

Connor Marriott of Instinct Education;

If you’ve had any experience with sales, you are likely already aware of many of the objections that can come up on a sales call. In the event that you have not encountered an objection on a sales call, here are some of the common objections coaches often face:

• Let me think about it. Can I call you back tomorrow?
• I can’t right now, I wasn't expecting it to be that expensive
• I’m busy at the moment, can you call me back next week?
• Sounds great, can you send me some more information? 

Sales experts will often tell you to spend your time memorising specific scripts or tactics to overcome different objections, but this is not always necessary. Instead, if we can understand the cause of the objections, it is possible to avoid them entirely. 

Objections typically fall under one of three categories:

• Money objections
• Change objections
• Decision objections

Money Based Objections

At its core, sales is an exchange of value. Therefore, money based objections (“It’s too expensive”, “I can’t afford that” etc.) are simply byproducts of a lack of perceived value in the mind of the prospect. 

If a prospect says “It costs too much money”, what they’re really saying is “I don’t believe your service is worth that much money”. In other words, it ‘costs too much’ not because the prospect doesn’t have money, but because their perceived value of your offer does not outweigh the price. 

This isn’t an objection to overcome, it’s one that should be removed before you ever make a pitch. If you’re experiencing this type of objection, it is an indication that the prospects' clarity around your offer, or their confidence in its ability to help them, is low. 

Before pitching your offer to a prospect, you must first identify the problem they want to solve. 

The value of your offer is not found in the offer itself, its value is directly proportional to the problem it is solving. 

This means exploring the problem the prospect wants to solve, gaining clarity around the cost of the problem, and the value of solving it. 

If the prospect has a $10,000 problem, and you can solve it for $5,000, it’s a great deal. If the problem is only a $1,000 problem in the eyes of the prospect, your $5,000 offer is going to be ‘too expensive’. 

Provided you’ve uncovered the cost of the problem, and the value of solving it, the only other hurdle is the prospect's confidence in your offer. If the prospect is 100% confident you can solve the $10,000 problem, then the value of your offer is $10,000. If they are only 20% confident that you can solve it, the percieved value will be $2,000 (20% of the problem). 

We’re dealing with money, so there’s a mathematical equation at work. The equation for money based objection has 4 variables;

1. Cost Of Problem; What the prospects problem is costing them
2. Value Of Goal; What achieving the goal is worth to the prospect
3. Confidence; The prospects confidence in your ability to help (as a percent)
4. Price; The price of your offer/service

The equation using hypothetical values is as follows;

Cost Of Problem ($10,000) + Value Of Goal ($30,000) = Value Of Outcome ($40,000)

Value Of Outcome ($40,000) x Confidence (50%) = Objective Value $20,000

When the prospect views the Objective Value of your offer as less than your Price, you face a money objection.

Change Based Objections

Change based objections (“I’ll try things on my own first”, “I’m just shopping around”, “I might be ready to start next month” etc.) are a byproduct of a prospects lack of drive to change. 

People don’t like change, and without a powerful reason to change, most people won’t. 

Simply put, to gain something new, one must first give up something old. A prospect might want to achieve a specific goal, whilst at the same time, not be willing to change in order to achieve it. Ultimately, they are choosing the comfort of staying the same over the discomfort associated with change.

It is human nature to avoid change, preferring instead the comfort, safety, and security of familiarity. This ‘Cost Of Change’ is directly correlated with the amount of Time someone has been in a specific situation. Time increases familiarity, which in turn, increases the Cost Of Change. If the Cost Of Change is greater than the Value Of Outcome, the prospect will not have any Drive to change.

 The equation for change based objections has 3 variables;

1. Value Of Outcome; Calculated above as Cost Of Problem + Value Of Goal
2. Time In Situation; How long the prospect has been in the current situation
3. Cost Of Change; The cost associated with change, which is directly proportional to Time In Situation - as time increases familiarity, and familiarity increases resistance to change

The equation using hypothetical values is as follows;

Value Of Outcome ($40,000) - Cost Of Change ($10,000) = Drive ($30,000)

When the prospects Drive is zero or below, you experience change based objections.

Decision Based Objections

Decision objections are a way to delay making a decision. “It’s a big decision”, “I need some time to think” or “I don’t make decisions on the spot” are all examples of decision based objections. 

People don’t like making decisions for the same reason they don’t like change. The uncertainty of something new can often outweigh the safety and familiarity found in ‘the way things are’. But if someone can see the Objective Value in what you do, and have the Drive to want to change, why do they still want to avoid making the decision to move forward?

It’s because the Objective Value of an offer does not matter to the prospect, they only care about the Subjective Value - ie, the value it has to them specifically. Something can be Objectively Valuable yet hold no subjective value to the individual.

The Subjective Value of an offer is not simply Value Of Outcome x Confidence. It’s Value Of Outcome - Cost Of Change (equal to Drive) x Confidence. The variables are;

1. Value Of Outcome; Calculated as Cost Of Problem + Value Of Goal
2. Drive; Calculated as Value Of Outcome - Cost Of Change
3. Price; The price of your offer/service

First we can calculate the Subjective Value, for example;

Drive ($30,000) x Confidence (50%) = Subjective Value ($15,000)

Next, if we divide Price by the Subjective Value get ‘Doubt’, which we can multiply by 100 to get the Delay Probability. For example;

Price ($5,000) / Subjective Value ($15,000) = Doubt (0.33)

This gives a Delay Probability of 33% (Doubt x 100)

The higher the Delay Probability, the greater the likelihood of receiving a delay based objection.

Decision based objections are the most important objections to overcome, as the moment a prospect gives a decision based objection is the moment they are the most certain they will ever be.

As Cost Of Change is correlated with Time, with every passing moment Doubt is increasing, increasing the Delay Probability along with it. This is why the longer a prospect delays a decision, the less likely they are to move forward.

Time increases Cost Of Change. Cost Of Change reduces Drive, which in turn increases Doubt. As Doubt grows, Confidence decreases, further lowering the Subjective Value.

The way to overcome this type of objection is by painting a clear picture of the two paths - moving forward vs staying where they are - and encouraging the prospect to decide which path they want to take.

Doing this changes the prospects view of the situation from “I’m not ready to make a decision”, to “which decision am I going to make?”, whilst adding urgency to the decision, as at any moment, the scales may tip.